斜坡变形破坏的预测及防护

通过对斜坡变形破坏和影响因素的研究，探讨工程建设中斜坡变形破坏的预测及防护。     

非线性生育率阶段结构的收获模型

建立并分析了一类非线性生育率阶段结构的单种群的收获模型，得到了正平衡点全局稳定的条件，给出了最优收获策略．     

基于RBF网络的混沌时间序列的建模与多步预测

提出将RBF神经网络应用于混沌时间序列的建模与预测中 ,设计了一个三层RBF网络结构 ,说明了RBF网络用于混沌时间序列建模和预测时的基本性质。仿真结果表明 ,RBF网络模型对混沌时间序列有比较强的拟合能力和比较高的一步及多步预测精度。采用RBF网络进行混沌时间序列的建模和预测能够取得比其它方法好得多的效果。     

临界等温线的推算──几个立方型状态方程的比较

对ＰＴ方程等几个立方型状态方程描述氩的临界等温线的能力作比较研究。在临界压力以下区域．ＰＴ方程、ＨＳ－ＳＲＫ方程和ＳＲＫ方程推算精度较好，ＡＡＤ＜０．４％。在临界压力以上区域，所讨论的五个方程都不能提供具有合理精度的描述。     

高Q-腔中量子化平移运动与原子内态布居的关系

讨论了在驻波腔场中两能级原子的量子化平移运动与原子内态布居间的相互影响。结果表明原子量子化平移运动敏感地依赖于原子的内态布居。     

A new model for the life prediction of GH4133 under TMF conditions

Thermal mechanical cyclic strain tests were carried out under in-phase and out-of-phase conditions on a Nickel-base Superalloy GH4133 in the temperature range of 571-823℃. Based on analyzing the present models of TMF (thermal mechanical fatigue) life prediction, a new model for predicting nickel-base superalloy TMF lifetime was proposed.TMF life of superalloy GH4133 was calculated accurately based on the new model. Experimental TMF life has been compared with the calculatedresults and all results fall in the scatter band of 1.5. The calculating results show that the new model is not only simple, but also precise. This model will play great roles in life prediction of the metal materials and the engineering components subjected to non-isothermal service conditions.     

Accurate forecasting of the undecided population in a public opinion poll

The problem of pollsters is addressed which is to forecast accurately the final answers of the undecided respondents to the primary question in a public opinion poll. The task is viewed as a pattern‐recognition problem of correlating the answers of the respondents to the peripheral questions in the survey with their primary answers. The underlying pattern is determined with a supervised artificial neural network that is trained using the peripheral answers of the decided respondents whose primary answers are also known. With peripheral answers as inputs, the trained network outputs the most probable primary response of an undecided respondent. For a poll conducted to determine the approval rating of the (former) Philippine president, J. E. Estrada in December 1999 and March 2000, the trained network predicted with a 95% success rate the direct responses of a test population that consists of 24.57% of the decided population who were excluded in the network training set. For the undecided population (22.67% of December respondents; 23.67% of March respondents), the network predicted a final response distribution that is consistent with the approval/disapproval ratio of the decided population. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震参数综合处理方法在储层横向预测中的应用

建立了一套计算机上可实现的地震参数综合研究的算法和程序,将地震参数综合处理方法变为计算机处理过程,再将地球物理数据转换为地质解释语言.从现有的模式识别或统计分析方法中,选用了输出能量最大准则滤波的综合参数法和标准样本学习的判别分析法进行储层岩性预测.尽管综合参数或判别函数本身已失去了各个参数原有的明确的物理意义,但它却代表了多参数共同性的变化,较可靠地反映出产生这些变化的地质因素.     

北京市水资源承载力的现状及驱动力分析

本文阐述了水资源承载力的概念、特性及影响因素，根据北京市各县区的统计资料，分析了北京市自上个世纪80年代以来水资源承载力变化的总体趋势和驱动因子．结果表明：人口和GDP是影响北京市水资源承载力变化的主要驱动因素．2001年北京市人口总量已达1367．78万人，为水资源最大承载人口的5．81倍．再加上工农业的发展，已经大大超过了北京市水资源的承载力，使得北京成为世界上严重缺水的大城市之一．根据人口的GDP增长率，通过多元线性回归模型，预测出了2010年和2015年北京市水资源的供需状况．并提出要实现水资源的供需平衡，应当实行开源节流并重的政策．     

老龄产业发展战略的思考

论述新世纪发展老龄产业的意义、作用、制约因素和内容．目的在于通过老龄产业的发展来解决日趋严重的人口老龄化问题；并运用实证分析法阐明经济发展、计划生育、社会安定与人类进步的关系。